What was the shortest bull market in history?
All shapes and sizes — The longest bull on record ran for more than 12 years (1987-2000) and rose by a whopping 582%. Conversely, the shortest one lasted 25 days (June 1931) yet generated a return of 27%.
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
The tech boom bull market is the biggest and longest bull market ever recorded in the history of the S&P 500, returning a stunning 582% and lasting a total of 4494 days (12 years and 4 months). This period of sustained growth started in 1987 and ended dramatically with the dot-com bust.
Stocks are in a bull market more often than not. The previous bull market lasted less than two years, starting in March 2020 and ending in January 2022.
The longest bear market spanned 61 months from 1937 to 1942 during the Great Depression. Bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets with an average duration of 6.6 years.
All shapes and sizes — The longest bull on record ran for more than 12 years (1987-2000) and rose by a whopping 582%. Conversely, the shortest one lasted 25 days (June 1931) yet generated a return of 27%.
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
Employing a good investments strategy in a bull market could be the difference that takes your yields to new heights. Some popular strategies include: Value investing involves buying under-priced assets, ie trading below their book value, to sell at a higher price. This strategy is often employed on blue-chip companies.
The stock market is back in bull mode and rallying this year thanks to strong corporate earnings, artificial intelligence (AI) excitement, and other factors. The S&P 500 index has already climbed 8% across 2024's trading, and it's up roughly 32% over the last year.
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. dot-com crash in March 2000 is technically the longest (a drop of 19.9% in 1990 nearly derailed that bull, but just missed the bear threshold).
Will there ever be a bull market again?
With potential economic threats remaining and market uncertainties looming in 2024, investors may still need to have patience before a truly durable bull market can get underway. But that doesn't mean there aren't any opportunities today.
The bull market is already well underway
Generally speaking, the best way to be sure about a new bull market is to look for two milestones. First, the market should rise at least 20% from its low. The S&P 500 hit its lowest point on Oct. 12, 2022.
Economic downturn or recession
However, economic indicators can change, and if there are signs of an economic downturn or recession, it can trigger a reversal in market sentiment. Factors such as slowing economic growth, rising inflation, or geopolitical tensions can contribute to the end of a bull run.
Not everyone, however, lost money during the worst economic downturn in American history. Business titans such as William Boeing and Walter Chrysler actually grew their fortunes during the Great Depression.
Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
---|---|---|
July 1990 to October 1990 | 3 months | -20% |
March 2000 to October 2002 | 31 months | -49% |
October 2007 to March 2009 | 17 months | -56% |
February 2020 to March 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
This duration surpasses the average length of bear markets, which typically span around 9.6 months. Although it was a challenging period for investors, it is important to note that this one-year duration falls short of the record-breaking bear market of 1973/74, which persisted for a staggering 20 months.
Prior to the most recent downturn, investors suffered a short-lived bear market at the start of the pandemic, when stocks plunged more than 20% from February 19, 2020, through March 23, 2020, then regained their footing and hit new highs.
Bear markets tend to be short-lived.
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. Every 3.5 years: That's the long-term average frequency between bear markets.
However, as a singular event, the stock market crash itself did not cause the Great Depression that followed. In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression.
Whether this new bull market will continue or another downturn is looming, stock prices will bounce back eventually. By simply riding out the storm and staying invested, you'll be ready to take advantage of those rising prices over the long haul.
Is it better to buy in a bull or bear market?
A bull market describes a period of continuous growth in the stock market of at least 20% and often coincides with a strengthening economy. Bull markets are generally a more profitable and less risky time to invest, but investing during bear markets can be beneficial, too.
But the early days of 2024 swept away this uncertainty as the S&P 500 reached its highest level ever, signaling we've been in bull territory for quite a while -- since the index started rebounding from its bear market low in late 2022.
Since 1957, the average bull market has lasted nearly five years and generated an average S&P 500 return of more than 169%.
Investing in bull and bear markets
Having a higher allocation of stocks is optimal in a bull market, where there's more potential for higher returns. One way to capitalize on the rising prices of a bull market is to buy stocks early on and sell them before they reach their peak.
Earnings Rebound
Despite an uncertain economic outlook, the S&P 500 has rallied to new all-time highs in 2024 driven by remarkably strong underlying economic fundamentals. S&P 500 companies have reported their second consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter.
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