What comes after a bull market?
A bull market occurs when securities are on the rise, while a bear market occurs when securities fall for a sustained period of time. It's important to understand the differences between bull and bear markets and how they impact your investment decisions.
The opposite of a bull market is a bear market, which is typically defined as stocks falling by 20% or more from a recent peak. Bear markets are often accompanied by recessions, falling investor confidence, and declines in corporate profits.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
Bear markets are the opposite phenomenon to bull markets. A bear market is a period when the S&P 500 pulls back 20% or more from its last all-time high. There have been 12 bull markets since the S&P 500 launched back in 1957, meaning a new one has started roughly once every 5.5 years.
A bull market ends when stocks fall 20 percent below their last high — a period known as a bear market. The last time the S&P 500 entered a bear market was in 2022, as investors recoiled in the face of stubborn inflation and rising interest rates.
Rank | Bull Markets | Return |
---|---|---|
1 | Tech boom bull market (1987-2000) | 582.15% |
2 | Post-financial crisis recovery bull market (2009-2020) | 400.52% |
3 | Post-World War II expansion bull market (1949-1956) | 266.35% |
4 | Reaganomics bull market (1982-1987) | 228.81% |
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher. While some valuations are stretched, there is still room for the market to grow if earnings estimates are met.
Earnings Rebound
Despite an uncertain economic outlook, the S&P 500 has rallied to new all-time highs in 2024 driven by remarkably strong underlying economic fundamentals. S&P 500 companies have reported their second consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter.
The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.
What is the longest bear market?
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
With potential economic threats remaining and market uncertainties looming in 2024, investors may still need to have patience before a truly durable bull market can get underway. But that doesn't mean there aren't any opportunities today.
That additional milestone adds more substance to the idea that the market has shifted to a new growth phase. Therefore, the bull market technically started back in October 2022.
The shortest bull market, which ran from June 1, 1932, to Sept. 7, 1932, lasted 98 days. The longest bull market lasted 4,494 days, from Dec. 4, 1987, to March 24, 2000.
Ideally, as investors see what appears to be the start of a bull market, they might buy stocks, stock mutual funds, and ETFs. As the bull market surges higher, they might consider selling some of their equity holdings. At the very least, they should continue with their normal rebalancing regimen.
The Last Bull Run: A Recap
The most recent significant bull run occurred in 2020 and extended into the early months of 2021. Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a surge in price, reaching unprecedented all-time highs.
Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
---|---|---|
March 2000 to October 2002 | 31 months | -49% |
October 2007 to March 2009 | 17 months | -56% |
February 2020 to March 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
January 2022 to October 2022 | 10 months | -25% |
Although the most famous running of the bulls is that of San FermÃn, they are held in towns and villages across Spain, Portugal, and in some cities in southern France during the summer.
Whether this new bull market will continue or another downturn is looming, stock prices will bounce back eventually. By simply riding out the storm and staying invested, you'll be ready to take advantage of those rising prices over the long haul.
Analysts say a take-off in the equity markets is typically marked by low inflation, low interest rates, earning yield to bond yield more than 1.5, historical valuation multiples like price to book value (P/BV) ratio, easy monetary policy, high liquidity, buybacks, dearth of new IPOs and weak hands vs strong hands ( ...
How do you know if you are in a bull market?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission defines a bull market as "a time when stock prices are rising and market sentiment is optimistic." More specifically, the SEC says a bull market tends to be marked by "a rise of 20% or more in a broad market index over at least a two-month period.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
Stocks and bonds deliver positive returns and cash underperforms both as the Fed pivots to rate cuts. Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years.
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