What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years?
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
---|---|
5 years (2019-2023) | 15.36% |
10 years (2014-2023) | 11.02% |
15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 12.02% over the last 10 years, as of the end of December 2023. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 10-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 8.93%.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
To some investors, this might seem unlikely. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index that has astonished with its ascent over the past decade, likely will continue to astonish through the 2020s, rising to 50,000 by 2027.
Tellurian Stock Prediction 2030
In 2030, the Tellurian stock will reach $ 155.40 if it maintains its current 10-year average growth rate. If this Tellurian stock prediction for 2030 materializes, TELL stock will grow 27,970.88% from its current price.
If you invest $10,000 today at 10% interest, how much will you have in 10 years? Summary: The future value of the investment of $10000 after 10 years at 10% will be $ 25940.
If you're saving $10,000 a year and have an additional $7,100 you can put into savings, Singh said a high-yield savings account with a 4% interest rate could take you to $100,000 in 10 years.
A good return on investment is generally considered to be around 7% per year, based on the average historic return of the S&P 500 index, adjusted for inflation. The average return of the U.S. stock market is around 10% per year, adjusted for inflation, dating back to the late 1920s.
What will 10000 be worth in 20 years?
The table below shows the present value (PV) of $10,000 in 20 years for interest rates from 2% to 30%. As you will see, the future value of $10,000 over 20 years can range from $14,859.47 to $1,900,496.38.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Money market funds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
Imagine you wish to amass $3000 monthly from your investments, amounting to $36,000 annually. If you park your funds in a savings account offering a 2% annual interest rate, you'd need to inject roughly $1.8 million into the account.
Third, many Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will jump in 2024, but with a lower return than last year. Sure, they're guessing, just as I am. However, they think that moderating inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts should be good for stocks.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
The stock market is on track for a decade-long bull market driven by the rise of millennials, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee said the S&P 500 could hit 19,349 by 2029 as the most populous American generation enters its prime earning years and forms families.
When the Dow peaked Jan. 4, 2022, the necessary gain was down to 6.33% annualized. As of Dec. 1, after a year of market woes, Morningstar calculates that hitting 116,200 in the fall of 2040 will take a 7.07% annualized gain, which feels like a safe bet.
Stock | Forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) |
---|---|
Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) | 25.3 |
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | 30.0 |
Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) | 26.6 |
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 57.6 |
Rank | Company | 20 Year Return |
---|---|---|
1 | Apple | 59,918% |
2 | Monster Beverage | 59,299% |
3 | NVIDIA | 28,712% |
4 | Intuitive Surgical | 18,221% |
Where will the Dow be in 2025?
Year | Prediction | Change |
---|---|---|
2025 | $ 58.42 | 1.29% |
2026 | $ 59.17 | 2.59% |
2027 | $ 59.93 | 3.91% |
2028 | $ 60.70 | 5.24% |
Historically, the stock market has an average annual rate of return between 10–12%. So if your $1 million is invested in good growth stock mutual funds, that means you could potentially live off of $100,000 to $120,000 each year without ever touching your one-million-dollar goose.
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Now, let's consider how our calculations change if the time horizon is 10 years. If you are starting from scratch, you will need to invest about $4,757 at the end of every month for 10 years. Suppose you already have $100,000. Then you will only need $3,390 at the end of every month to become a millionaire in 10 years.
If the future ends up like the past, $100,000 would grow into $1 million in just over 24 years from compounding alone. The good news is that if you get that $100,000 nest egg saved by the time you're 40, you have a decent shot of retiring a millionaire at a fairly standard retirement age simply from compounding.
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