Are we in a new bull market for stocks?
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
That additional milestone adds more substance to the idea that the market has shifted to a new growth phase. Therefore, the bull market technically started back in October 2022.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
How long do bull markets usually last? Historically speaking, the average length of a bull market is 9.6 months. The average gain for a bull market is 112%. Keep in mind these are the average and they have been extending with each bull market.
Bitcoin Halving appears to be fueling the next bull run to happen in 2024. Investing in the best altcoins can be rewarding as they offer diversification and potentially higher returns. However, it is important to approach the altcoin landscape with caution and do a thorough research.
Over the course of President Biden's term, the U.S. stock market experienced whipsaw-like volatility. The benchmark S&P 500 generated impressive returns of 28.7% in 2021 and 26.29% in 2023.
"Looking ahead, we anticipate that the economic slowdown will weigh on equity markets, allowing for a potential pivot toward investments that we believe are most likely to benefit from a subsequent recovery," Cronk said. His 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 ranges from 4,600 to 4,800.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
"Some traders predict a flat or down market in the first half of 2024 due to high inflation, recession fears and rate hikes from the Fed. However, others foresee a bull market continuing, citing potential Fed rate cuts, earnings growth and historical trends around election years."
Is 2024 a good year to buy stocks?
But things have been looking up, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.14%) has surged by more than 33% since late 2022. While it's unclear whether prices will continue soaring, many people are hopeful that we're in the early stages of a new bull market. If that's the case, 2024 could be a great year for the stock market.
Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years. Resilient growth may prove to be an additional tailwind for stocks.
Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade at 39071 points in the first month of 2024 and and advance up to 48,000 points by the end of the year. This is the most bullish Dow Jones forecast for 2024.
Economic downturn or recession
However, economic indicators can change, and if there are signs of an economic downturn or recession, it can trigger a reversal in market sentiment. Factors such as slowing economic growth, rising inflation, or geopolitical tensions can contribute to the end of a bull run.
What is a bear market? While bull markets are fueled by optimism, bear markets — which occur when stock prices fall 20% or more for a sustained period of time — are just the opposite.
Ideally, as investors see what appears to be the start of a bull market, they might buy stocks, stock mutual funds, and ETFs. As the bull market surges higher, they might consider selling some of their equity holdings. At the very least, they should continue with their normal rebalancing regimen.
The Last Bull Run: A Recap
The most recent significant bull run occurred in 2020 and extended into the early months of 2021. Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a surge in price, reaching unprecedented all-time highs.
The Running of the Bulls 2024 dates are July 7 – 14, 2024 in Pamplona, Spain.
According to CryptoCon, the following $BTC bull run will start on November 28, 2024, and the following price peak is anticipated to occur approximately +/- 21 days after that day in 2025, followed by the following price low at roughly the same time in 2026.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 21.9% under Biden, whereas it grew 44.6% for Trump. The Nasdaq composite index is up 13.8% under Biden and was up 62% for Trump.
What president had the highest stock market?
The best stock market performance by a president in the post-World War II era came under Bill Clinton; the S&P 500 was up a whopping 210% in his two-term presidency, from 1993-2001. The second-best return under a U.S. president? That would be Barack Obama's eight-year tenure when the S&P was up 189% from 2009-2017.
The highest closing price for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) all-time was $39,781.37, on Thursday. The latest price is $39,475.64.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 0.1% from Thursday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).
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